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THE BUSINESS SCENE A Look Back And AheadStorage And Developing Nations' Energy Supply |
Distributed Electricity Storage: Foundation for the Business CaseRecognizing the technical adva- nces in electricity storage and power electronics technologies coupled with the changes of the application opportunities and challenges for the electric utilities, the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) and the United States Department of Energy (DOE) cosponsored the preparation of the Handbook of Energy Storage for Transmission and Distribution Applications in 2003. A supplement for wind applications was prepared in 2004 (see "For Further Reading"), and plans call for an integrated update and expansion by the end of 2006. The Handbook of Energy Storage for Transmission and Distribution Applications identifies the overall markets and benefits of DES systems and provides a technology-neutral framework for comparative benefit-cost assessments for representative utility use of DES systems. This article draws upon the handbook and supplement as bases for the DES business case from the utility perspective. We address the applications and value streams of DES with the intent of being technology neutral and then describe the status of some commercial technologies. DES Benefits in a NutshellDES systems give utilities more planning and operational flexibility to respond to new business challenges and opportunities by more readily adapting to changes in market conditions, demand, regulations, customer requirements, and competition. Hence, DES is expected to play an important supporting role in the grid of the future. With ongoing growth in the customer segment using processes and communications systems sensitive to power quality, certain high-power DES systems are already providing a critical role in mitigating location-specific power disturbances on the distribution system. At the transmission level, such DES systems have been applied to provide "prompt" spinning reserve and, depending on the energy storage level and cycling capability, may be adapted to provide regulation control.Such DES systems may also be adapted for load-shifting applications, through which low-cost, off-peak energy may be stored for use to offset on-peak, high-cost energy, thereby reducing the cost of service. Furthermore, such DES systems located close to loads may allow utilities to reduce the cost per megawatt served by deferring or even avoiding much bigger upgrades or expansions in their GT&D infrastructure. Finally, DES is well suited to stabilize and optimize intermittent renewable resources, particularly wind generation, including short term (seconds) for fluctuation stabilization or long term (hours) for curtailment mitigation plus firming and shaping for forecast hedging or the time shift of generation. For DES to be broadly deployed and achieve such potential, three key and interrelated conditions must be met: 1) quantified DES benefits must justify deployment, 2) utilities must have regulatory support to achieve remuneration for these DES systems, and 3) utility power engineers must have the tools needed to evaluate the technical and financial merits of DES systems. Even if all these conditions are met, the DES community (suppliers and users) must ensure that their capabilities, technical characteristics, and benefits are understood by regulators, utility planners and power engineers, regional transmission organizations (RTOs), independent system operators (ISOs), and ratepayers and related advocacy groups. Leading DES ApplicationsTo date, the Handbook of Energy Storage for Transmission and Distribution Applications has identified five broad categories of leading utility applications for DES systems: distribution power quality (DPQ), grid stability (GS), grid operational support (GOS), daily load shifting (DLS), and wind generation support (WGS). Each of these has multiple subcategories. In this article, the typically highest potential subcategories in each broad category are summarized below, including the key duty-cycle parameters required for the DES system and the recommended value bases for assessing the benefits.
Although such combined benefits are readily accrued by an integrated GT&D utility, the restructuring of the utility industry typically precludes the full attribution of value for such benefits and consequently poses an institutional challenge for such DES deployment. Leading DES TechnologiesWith few exceptions, the utility DES applications in the Handbook of Energy Storage for Transmission and Distribution Applications are based on a 10-MW power level. The selected DES technologies are based on having been demonstrated, even at a reduced scale, and on their availability for deployment or expected availability by 2006. Detailed descriptions of the leading DES systems are included in the handbook. See Table 1 for a list of leading DES technologies with their respective commercial status, target markets, and experience summaries.Application Assessment and Business CaseCost and performance parameters have been obtained from the leading vendors of the preceding DES systems for use in adapting the respective DES systems to their suitable applications or select combinations of such applications for the purpose of economic evaluation. For the combined applications, the approach used was to first size the reference DES system to meet the requirements of the initial, priority application and then add functions incrementally to identify an economic optimal configuration that utilizes system attributes to the fullest extent practical (taking into account the implications of the combined duty cycles in terms of managing the state of charge, thermal management, cycle life, etc). The net present value of the lifecycle benefits and costs for the respective applications have been assessed using transparent alternative solution values, economic groundrules, and analysis methods. Based on the benefit-to-cost ratio figure of merit, the resultant suitability of the DES technologies for single and select combined applications is presented in the Handbook of Energy Storage for Transmission and Distribution Applications.
Attractive matchups of the DES system with the leading single and combined applications, based on the benefit-to-cost ratio being greater than one, are noted in Table 2 with a However, such analyses are based on representative economic groundrules and assumptions as described in the Handbook of Energy Storage for Transmission and Distribution Applications. The parameters used therein should be reviewed in light of utility- and project-specific applications, alternative solutions, electric rates, and financial parameters. Any project deployment considerations deserve detailed interactions with the respective vendors able to optimize their systems to the site-specific application(s). From that, the full DES business case can be developed with detailed functional specifications for the application(s); vendor prices, warranties, terms, and capabilities; overall costs, risks, and a benefits assessment of the DES candidate system(s); and the comparison of all the above against the competing alternative solution(s). As multiple applications can be served and related values accrued to the stakeholders, the business case for DES will improve, becoming worthy or even compelling. The utilities with the ability to achieve this will lead DES deployment into the future. For Further ReadingEPRI-DOE Handbook of Energy Storage for Transmission and Distribution Applications, EPRI, Palo Alto, CAand US DOE, Washington, DC, 1001834, 2003. EPRI-DOE Handbook Supplement of Energy Storage for Grid Connected Wind Generation Applications, EPRI, Palo Alto, CA and US DOE, Washington, DC, 1008703, 2004. BiographiesDan Mears is the president and founding principal of Technology Insights, an advanced energy technology consulting firm based in San Diego, California. Technology Insights' focus is on application and system engineering; economic assessments; safety, reliability, and risk analyses; and project and market development for emerging energy-related technologies and systems. Technology Insights has worked extensively with distributed energy resources for the full range of end-user and/or grid applications and has been the lead contractor in the development of the EPRI-DOE Handbook of Energy Storage for Transmission and Distribution Applications and the EPRI-DOE Handbook Supplement of Energy Storage for Grid Connected Wind Generation Applications. Dan has a Ph.D. in nuclear engineering and is a professional mechanical and nuclear engineer in California.Joe Iannucci is with Distributed Utility Associates in Livermore, California. Jim Eyer is with Distributed Utility Associates in Livermore, California. Steve Eckroad is the program manager for the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) in Charlotte, North Carolina.
Electricity Restructuring in Turkey: Promises and PredicamentsThese issues and the pressures from international financial organizations and donor agencies such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank have been the principal driving forces behind the electricity power industry (EPI) reforms in many of these countries. In more developed countries, however, the aim of electricity reform has been cited as improving the performance of relatively efficient power systems. Ever-increasing customer expectations on power quality and reliability, local and federal governments' willingness to deregulate the industry by reducing their monitoring role, further EPI investment mandates by government sectors, and governments' commitments to spend existing resources in other sectors and on more urgent social projects were among the more direct motives for EPI restructuring in those countries. Actual reform programs exhibit a variety of designs, particularly in terms of market structure, degree of private involvement, and sequencing of reform stages. No one model fits all participating countries, and no matter which model is initially chosen, electricity restructuring is an ongoing and evolving activity. Therefore, the design of reform programs in individual countries should reflect the particular socioeconomic circumstances of a country and its electricity sector. Many power sector reform programs in developing countries, particularly in those where the power industry is organized as monopolies under public ownership (as it is in Turkey), are focused on moving from a monopoly to either a single buyer model (SBM) or directly to a wholesale competition model. The SBM allows a state-owned single buyer or purchasing agency to encourage competition among generators by choosing its supply of electricity from a number of competitive electricity producers. Each utility in such an arrangement is still vertically integrated (although an unbundled case is also possible) and enters power purchase agreements (PPAs) with independent power producers (IPPs) through a competitive process. SBM has been adopted in many countries as a transition stage to wholesale competition, allowing additional time for generation and distribution sectors to reorganize and regroup sufficiently for participation in a competitive wholesale electricity market. Such SBM arrangements allow distribution companies (and eligible customers) to purchase electricity directly from generators of their choice, transmit electricity under an open-access transmission system to their service areas, and deliver it to their customers using local grids. Using an SBM, power sectors could undergo the unbundling of generation, transmission, and distribution and eventually establish a regulatory authority to set up a multibuyer, multiseller competitive power market in which competition could take place at the wholesale level through bilateral contracts and spot market pricing. The popularity of the modest SBM is due to several economic, technical, and institutional factors, including the ease of network operation and control and simplicity of tariff regulation. However, the main risks involved with the implementation of this model include the ability of governments to impose inefficient regulatory practices on the market for manipulating the single buyer, the possibility of existing monopolies imposing market power, a lack of initial financial resources to implement SBM, a lack of social desire by customers to make changes in electricity utilization to empower restructuring, and the lack of government commitment to full reform in order to avoid politically controversial consequences of introducing privatization and competition. Under the SBM, IPPs could benefit from long-term PPAs backed by government guarantees for raising long-term financial requirements. One of the major disadvantages of the SBM is that PPAs between the single buyer and private generator companies (or IPPs) could create a contingent liability for the government. When government guarantees are attractive to investors, there may be an upward bias in the generation capacity procurement, and government officials may find it difficult to resist powerful interest groups pushing for treasury-guaranteed capacity expansion. Accordingly, decisions to add generating capacity could be influenced by government officials who will not have to directly bear the financial consequences of their actions. This was experienced in Turkey during the 1990s. Electricity Restructuring in TurkeyOne of the main drivers of reforms in the Turkish EPI was the rapid growth in electricity demand combined with the inability of government sectors to meet that demand through public investments or treasury-guaranteed private investments, given the deteriorating fiscal situation in Turkey. There have been several approaches employed over the last two decades to restructure the power sector and solicit private investments in Turkey. Different models used for restructuring to attract private investment include build-operate-transfer (BOT) and build-own-operate (BOO) models for new power plants. These long-term PPAs, which were signed between the private party and utility, include treasury guarantees. The BOT-type PPAs especially were heavily front-end loaded with higher capacity charges within the first few years of operation to allow for early recovery of investment costs in addition to the relatively high electricity cost. Indeed, these PPAs attracted substantial foreign power plant investments during the 1990s, particularly when the average increase in annual electricity consumption in Turkey was very high. However, they led the government to sign long-term PPAs at wholesale tariffs that were unsustainable given the retail tariffs and collections record. Consequently, by provision of contractual safeguards awarded to foreign investors in the form of treasury guarantees and take-or-pay assurances, PPAs have in effect become foreign debt assumed by the government.The Electricity Market Law (EML), enacted in 2001, aimed to put an end to those types of PPAs. EML envisioned a wholesale electricity market based on bilateral contracts allowing generation companies and wholesale trade companies, distribution companies, independent retail companies, and eligible customers (consuming more than 7.8 GWh per year) to buy electricity from their regional distributor or retailer, a wholesaler, a new independent retailer, or an independent generator. Captive customers, on the other hand, had no choice but to buy their electricity from a regional distributor or retailer. EML covers generation, transmission, distribution, wholesale, retail, and respective electricity services (including its import and export), the rights and responsibilities of individuals connected with those services, the establishment of a regulatory body, and its running procedures and principals as well as actions to be followed for the privatization of generation and distribution assets. After the enactment of EML, an energy market regulatory authority (EMRA) was established, and generation, transmission, and trading parts of the state monopoly, Turkish Electricity Generation Transmission Co. (TEAS), were unbundled. The generation company is named Turkish Electricity Generation Co. (EUAS), the transmission company Turkish Electricity Transmission Co. (TEIAS), and the wholesale trade company Turkish Electricity Trading and Contracting Co. (TETAS). The distribution company, Turkish Electricity Distribution Co. (TEDAS), which had already been separated from the monopoly (TEK) in 1993 with an attempt to prepare it for privatization, continues to be in charge of distribution with its regional affiliate companies. Under the new structure, state-owned EUAS will take over and operate the state's existing power plants that have not transferred to the private sector. TEIAS is responsible for transmission assets, system operation and maintenance, planning new transmission investments, and building new transmission facilities. TETAS was created to carry out wholesale electricity trading; it will take over all existing energy sale and purchase agreements from TEAS and TEDAS. Indeed, dealing with the long-term treasury-guaranteed PPAs and the associated stranded costs is a primary reason for the creation of TETAS, which will be regulated because it will be the dominant buyer and seller in the market for the foreseeable future. Market Design IssuesThe dominant role a of state-owned trading company induces many concerns. One concern is the provision for additional power generation capacity by private companies during the development of a competitive market. IPPs will feel the need to sign long-term contracts with the government in order to protect their investments, unless they are confident in the continued competitiveness of the wholesale electricity market and the liquidity of market contracts. These conditions are only plausible with the insurance of distribution companies' creditworthiness and the provision of cost-reflected electricity tariffs. However, distribution companies in Turkey are facing big financial difficulties mainly due to high technical and nontechnical losses (electricity theft and nonpayment) and free electricity supply.The privatization of state-owned distribution companies by the Turkish government through transferring their operational rights (not the ownership) is expected to solve the financial difficulties of the distribution sector, improve collections, enforce the punitive actions against nonpaying customers, and improve the reliability and quality of the supplied electricity. It may be argued that privatization can achieve these targets. However, these issues are highly political and sensitive in nature, and the punitive disconnection of nonpaying customers could ultimately need political approval. Therefore, privatization will not remove the government's responsibility and role. It is also arguable that if the government is not able to initiate these measures, private (and often foreign) ownership alone could at best only partially achieve the restructuring targets. Moreover, privatization could result in higher electricity prices in order for private investors to guarantee their service obligations. Current subsidies for residential electricity prices could make the privatization process more difficult; the removal of subsidies and ensuring a higher quality of service are major challenges, which could create social and political headaches for authorities. Subsidies on Electricity PricesIn Turkey, the electricity price for industrial consumers has been as high as that for residential consumers and farmers for many years. In practice, the cost of supplying electricity to households and farmers, which is much higher than that of industry, shows a sure sign of cross-subsidies. This is confirmed by an international comparison of electricity prices given in Table 1. The higher electricity prices, in relative terms, for industrial use could lead to criticism by industries that their competitiveness is being restricted. The fact that the cost of supplying electricity remains so high constitutes an impediment to regional and international competitiveness.In order to soften the public outcry against relaxing the subsidies after establishing the electricity market, all organizations involved in the electricity power sector should get involved in more aggressive public relations campaigns. The government and electricity authorities especially should do much more in explaining the core of the reform and its long-term consequences and benefits. It should be taken into account that certain relatively low-income population sectors in Turkey may not be able to bear any substantial increases to their cost of living. Therefore, it is essential to introduce incremental steps for initial energy price increases before competitions among suppliers can stabilize market prices. A Possible Strategy for Relaxing SubsidiesThe major reason for providing subsidies on electricity prices to farmers is the rather poor reliability of electricity supply in rural areas. Frequent interruptions in the electricity supply could affect farming productivity, particularly for dairy products. Therefore, farmers need subsidies for their electricity prices in order to survive in a rather unpredictable environment. The lack of incentives to improve the electricity services provided to farmers includes their low share in total electricity consumption and the location of farms far from urban areas where the majority of consumption takes place. The subsidy can be provided in different forms. For example, farmers who are unable to pay their electricity bills to regional distribution utilities often receive subsidies through the cancellation of their debts by Turkey's government.The question is: If the reliability of the electricity supplied to farmers is improved, would they be able to pay their electricity bills through their increased productivity? If the farmers are able to utilize the technology efficiently, the answer certainly will be "yes." Indeed, many farmers working in similar situations in different countries confirm that they would probably not need as large a subsidy on electricity prices if they had a more reliable supply of electricity. The reliability of supplied electricity, however, can be improved mainly from the increased capital-intensive investment in rural electrification. How can farmers be convinced to pay more while the subsidy on their electricity prices is being relaxed? Service providers and farmers could negotiate based on different models to implement such plan. In one possible model, the electricity prices could be increased in steps as the duration of the supply interruption is gradually decreased (Figure 1). Assume that the total interruption of the supply is D/month. If this duration is decreased by some amount (D), then the farmers could be convinced to pay proportionally more (P). The key point is that the total increase in the electricity price accepted by the farmers should be sufficient to recover the required investments and to relax the subsidy. A similar method can also be applied to relax subsidies on household electricity prices in big cities where consumers complain frequently about supply interruption and agree to pay more for a more reliable electricity supply. Competition at the Generation SegmentIt is pointless to free up the electricity market in Turkey when there is no cost-responsive tariff implementation (that is, under subsidy). How can IPPs compete with the state-owned generation companies under the subsidy of electricity prices? On the other hand, if the subsidies are relaxed to a competitive level, then how can the state-owned trading company compete with the IPPs entering the market? The industrial customers (or eligible customers) that have been subsidizing residential and other customers will no longer be a source of cross-subsidies if they have the option to buy from a cheaper supplier. This in turn may lead to the need for a big, immediate increase in retail tariffs for nonindustrial customers (that is, captive customers), rather than a series of phased-in increases over a longer period of time.An ongoing electricity project the Turkish authorities are very keen to achieve is the link to the European Union (EU) electricity network, that is, the Union of Coordination of Transmission of Electricity (UCTE). Turkey eventually plans to interconnect its electrical system with the UCTE grid via the Greek and Bulgarian grid and take advantage of cross-border electricity trading with the UCTE member countries. Preliminary works for this interconnection have been carried out according to UCTE regulations. The importance of this project has increased recently, especially after Turkey attained its candidacy for the EU membership in 2004. The actual interconnection is expected to be realized within a few years. However, recent directives issued by the European Commission (EC) underscore the importance of the full opening of energy markets to improve Europe's competitiveness. The SBM is not permitted in EU membership countries because it delays the development of cross-border electricity trade by leaving it to the state-owned single buyer without a strong profit motive. The development of a retail market is proposed, which allows all electricity customers the freedom to choose suppliers. The development of the EU electricity market with the provision of an interconnection with the Turkish electricity network seems to provide new electricity trading opportunities for companies in EU membership countries. If the market is freed up completely and subsidies on electricity prices are relaxed to a competitive level, foreign companies will be able to trade with noncaptive customers through interconnected transmission lines without the need for making new investments in Turkey. Concluding RemarksThe implementation of cost-based electricity prices is one of the key issues for the development of a competitive electricity market in Turkey. Therefore, a well-designed electricity tariff balancing strategy that considers the social, economic, and political issues of the country is quite important. Determining subsidies and defining a phase-out plan for subsidies are among the critical issues for a transition phase in restructuring and are essential for introducing incremental steps in adjusting electricity prices. The development of a competitive electricity market depends on the success of this transition phase in Turkey.Opening the market to eligible ratepayers, which include subsidized residential and other electrical customers, may threaten the success of the proposed transition phase. The eligible customers will no longer be a source of cross-subsidies if they have the opportunity to buy from a cheaper supplier. For example, the interconnection of the system in Turkey with the UCTE grid could provide new electricity trading opportunities for generation companies in EU membership countries in the near future. This could lead to a substantial and immediate increase in retail tariffs for captive electricity customers, rather than a series of incremental increases over a longer period of time. Finally, the simplicity of the tariff regulation process makes an SBM more favorable during the transition phase, provided that the additional generation capacity required during the transition phase is supplied by IPPs through a competitive process. For Further ReadingM. Shahidehpour and M. Alomoush, Restructured Electrical Power Systems. New York: Marcel Dekker, June 2001.D.M. Newbery, "Issues and options for restructuring electricity supply industries," Dept. Applied Econ., Univ. Cambridge, Cambridge, MA, DAE Working Paper WP 0210, 2002. T. Jamasb, "Reform and regulation of the electricity sectors in developing countries," Dept. Applied Econ., Univ. Cambridge, Cambridge, MA, DAE Working Paper WP 0226, Aug. 2002. R.W. Bacon and J.B. Jones, "Global electric power reform, privatization and liberalization of the electric power industry in developing countries," in "Annual Rev. Energy Environ. 2001," World Bank, Washington, DC, 2001, vol. 26. L. Lovei, "The single buyer modelA dangerous path toward competitive electricity markets," in "Private Sector and Infrastructure Network," Worldbank Group, Washington, DC, Note 225, Dec. 2000. I. Atiyas and M. Dutz, "Competition and regulatory reform in the Turkish electricity industry," Conference on EU Accession, Ankara, Turkey, May 2003. BiographyOsman Bulent Tor is a specialist research engineer at the Information Technology and Electronics Research Institute (BILTEN) of the Scientific and Technical Research Council of Turkey (TUBITAK). Osman's research interests include the modeling, operation, and control of restructured power systems. He is a Member of the IEEE. |