I will write about “Business and Industry” for this issue as I planned to do in the beginning of the year. I will give you an update on my goals, and also report on the results of OFC 2002 and on the IEEE budget.

Many people are asking, “When will the recovery occur?” The reality is no one really knows, and I am also not sure that’s the right question to ask. Until the carriers’ financial picture improves significantly, they are not going to able to borrow to go on a buying spree. Since earning money the old-fashioned way takes time, we can expect the recovery will be gradual. A better question to ask may be what the recovery might look like. We can get a little hint by reminding ourselves that until the last few years, telecom companies never used to buy from small companies. I was told years ago that they didn’t want to worry about the system not working for a “hundred years” after they buried it under the ground. Long time any way. Buying from new suppliers seems highly risky by that definition. So the likelihood is carriers will only buy from new companies when there is a compelling reason for them to switch from established suppliers.

Most of us are asking about the recovery because we are feeling vulnerable about our companies and our jobs. Just how bad can things get? Being an eternal optimist, I am going to go overboard on my pessimism to err on the side of playing safe. The once overly exuberant market forecasters are now perhaps overly depressed. They are now predicting the optical telecom business will return to last year’s level around 2005! The venture community gurus are also forecasting gloom and doom, predicting out of the 700-800 optical telecom companies started in the last three years, less than 10% will survive, and some people think that’s being too optimistic. So, company management has two choices, cut back the workforce too far, or not far enough. The right choice is obvious since one is a recoverable mistake, the other one is not. The reality is there is no way getting around the reality of being out of money, out of business. Most of these companies were started with the assumption of being able to go IPO in two to three years. Since fewer than a handful of companies will go IPO this year, the loss of investor confidence will further aggravate the problem, and is going to be a major cause to make the 10:1 prediction a self-fulfilling prophecy. So, my advice is to think conservatively in whatever you do. And for those companies that have had the fortune of going IPO during the bubble, conserve cash because when the interest rate rises, which most certainly it will, cash is going to be king.

For my “president’s goals,” we have formed an ad hoc committee to address what LEOS can do in support of Chapter activities and to activate retired members. Karen Bergman, Robert Lang, Del Owyoung, and Shoichi Sudo graciously volunteered. We need input from you, especially if you are active in Chapters or have retired. Some of the action items we initiated for Chapters are: Organize and post best practices on the LEOS website; hold a Chapter retreat at LEOS annual meetings; Karen will write an article listing all the LEOS benefits available to Chapters and student members; and Chapter Chairs are encouraged to have more interaction with LEOS officers and also to make use of the staff resources at the Executive Office. Del is the first of a few retirees who have contacted me, and he has already volunteered in LEOS activities. So I would like to hear from more of you about your needs, and your willingness to actively participate in LEOS activities.

FYI, Jim Coleman championed a program for primary and secondary school teachers to do research in universities. This is a trial program to be funded by LEOS for three years, with up to three grants with a maximum of $10,000 each. You may want to get together with a local teacher to apply for it. In 2002, the deadline for submissions will be 25 April, and awards will be decided and announced by 16 May. This program triggered an idea that to get more young people interested in science and technology could be the noble goal needed to rally our members. Maybe we can take on a project to make it easy for LEOS members to promote science and photonics to K-12 students through the Chapters, hopefully with the active participation of retired members. What I’ve learned from Jim is that most high school science teachers do not have much more than sophomore college physics. So it is hard for them to make science interesting. That’s something most of us are good at, especially if we can get a few pointers from a colleague. I personally have avoided touching the K-12 science education issue because as an individual I do not know how to get my hands around such a big problem. A little help from the LEOS “mother ship,” such as having available a collection of simple demonstrations, or pointers to the organizations that already have similar efforts underway may just be enough to set some of us into motion. We can then make a meaningful personal contribution in our own way to fulfill some particular local needs. Some of us may choose to develop a mentor relationship with a student or a teacher, to give a lecture at a local science museum, to help a student do a science project, or whatever. None of these are new ideas, but the point is with a little “lubricant”, we can help our members make laser electro-optics topics interesting to spark student interests. What do you think? Please write me of any successes and failures you have had in these activities and any help you wish you had and I will compile your experiences to share with everyone.

I will now report on OFC 2002. Total attendance was down slightly from last year, 15 % to 32,000. Technical registration was just over 7,700, down nearly 30% from last year. On the other hand, total booths sold were 1241, up over 25% from last year, although 37 booths were paid for but the companies chose not to exhibit. As I reported last time, paper submissions were at a record high, but to maintain quality standards, the number of papers presented was about the same as the previous year. Given that OFC is by far one of the most important sources of income for LEOS, please do what you can to help make OFC 2003 a big success.

I will report, for the last time, on the IEEE budget. I brought it up because I felt you ought to know. But this is also something LEOS, as a Society, has essentially no control over. The good news is IEEE is working towards a balanced budget, cutting staff and expenses. Just imagine, sending us the IEEE membership cards, which I trash, costs IEEE about $1 Million a year. What impacts LEOS directly is the “infrastructure tax.” In the past this tax was based on the cash reserve of each Society. For 2001, that amounted to $2.48 Million for LEOS! Now since they have adopted a “pay-by-the-drink” formula, our tax in 2002 is projected to be $881,000 and will decline each year to $484,000 in 2005. Given that our reserve now stands at a healthy $5.4M, which is the third largest among IEEE Societies, there is no guarantee they won’t somehow tap into it. In the meantime, keep your fingers crossed on the outcome of OFC 2003.